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Victoria – the fix. We explain how and why. But it won’t happen

Tuesday, September 08, 2020

For any Australian not living in Victoria, particularly Melbourne, it’s impossible to understand what’s going on. The high-pitched hysteria emanating from the state is effectively the cry of a people who’ve now realised that they are living in a third-world-like failed state.

The closing of Victoria by the Andrews Labor government is the direct result of one thing—a chaotic collapse of Victoria’s health administration—in other words, state failure!

The evidence is stark.

The hotel quarantine mess has proven not to be a one-off event but rather the first example of failed health administration. The quarantine was shambolic from the start. No direction. No control. No monitoring. No response to problems. No communication.

The Covid-19 testing and tracking regime has been chaotic.
  • The Victorian health department still refuses to test anyone not showing symptoms. Yet it’s known that non-symptomatic people are the most dangerous spreaders, simply because they don’t know that they have the virus. Knowledge is essential to willing compliance!
  • Follow-up of testing has been chaotic. People have waited for up to a week to be told of test results, sometimes never told. Again, knowledge is essential to willing compliance.
  • Covid-19-positive people have been left uncontacted for days, frequently alone, not knowing what they can/cannot do.
  • Contacted people have been given conflicting advice. You are positive. Next, no you are negative. You can leave home. No you must stay at home!
  • Seriously ill positive Covid-19 people left uncontacted have languished at home when they urgently required hospitalisation.
Tracing of communicable diseases is a core function of health administration. Testing, reporting and tracing of HIV, STIs, hepatitis and so on have been required for decades. But what Covid-19 has exposed is a Victorian health administration in collapse.

The outcome has been that Victoria’s health administrators have driven down the testing rate to a point where they might be able to cope. In just one day last week NSW conducted 29,000 tests. Victoria did 10,000. This low rate is a conscious decision by Victoria’s health bureaucrats because they know they cannot manage the contact follow-up and tracing of higher test numbers.

What this demonstrates is that Victoria’s health bureaucrats know or believe that large numbers of Covid-19-positive people remain in the community, most probably without symptoms and undetected. Given that the health administrators cannot cope, the only option they see is lockdown. What they hope is that, as the reported number of infections drops, the unknown, untested non-symptomatic infection numbers will also drop. But they won’t know. That’s why they have this two-week, locked-in delay trigger in the ‘road to recovery’ plan. They hope that non-symptomatic, unknown carriers will cease to be infectious.

The health administrators are living on dangerous blind hope. They know that in releasing the state from lockdown it will take just one unknown, non-symptomatic Covid-19 infectious person to start wandering the state, and Covid-19 will re-explode across the state. The ‘road to recovery’ is a pathway of potential easing followed by reimposed constriction through to at least Christmas. No wonder the other state Premiers are so scared of Dan Andrews’ Victoria.

Effectively the ‘road to recovery’ is a declaration by the Andrews Labor government of the collapse of health administration. That is, Victoria is a failed state.

This also explains why Victoria is now a dictatorship state effectively defined as such within the emergency powers legislation.

When a business fails, the people who created the failure never recognise that they are the problem and cannot fix the problem. That’s why failed business executives are sacked and new people come in. Look at the waves of bank executive sackings during 2019! But this does not readily happen with governments. Failure is locked in.

This is the reason for the cries of anguish from the people of Victoria. They now sense that they are staring at an abyss of failure. The signs are all around.

Last week the Andrews Labor government, with the support of The Greens, pushed through legislation removing parliamentary oversight of the emergency (dictatorship) laws (see the video). That is, democracy has been stomped shut. The arrest of ‘pyjama Mum’ for expressing dissenting views has sent waves of fear through ‘middle’ Australia/Victoria that they now live in a police state. People now genuinely fear the police and fear that their phones, emails and social media are being monitored for ‘thought’ crimes. The fear is totally rational given the evidence of ‘pyjama Mum’.

And, as with every dictatorship, the oppression of the state discriminates. Dan’s union-led public servants have been gifted a two per cent pay rise. Not one public servant has lost his or her job or income! Premier Andrews’ expressed hatred of, and intention to outlaw, self-employed, small business people is on display in his Covid-19 regulations banning sole traders from working. For example, Jim’s Mowing independent contractor gardeners are not allowed to work. Yet government-employed gardeners are working, including those tending the gardens at the Premier’s office (see the video evidence).

In the immediate situation there is only one way to fix the failed state of Victoria.
  • Premier Andrews resigns or is forced out by his state Labor MPs.
  • The senior (even middle) management levels of the Victorian health administration are sacked.
  • The Victorian public- and private-sector unions are isolated from the health administration process.
  • The Victorian government hands over its health administration of Covid-19 (at least) to a Commonwealth-led health administration taskforce drawing on the combined expertise and resources of the other state governments.
  • The taskforce immediately implements a large scale Covid-19 testing, tracing and follow system.
On the evidence from the other states, within (probably) two weeks of this occurring, Victoria would be out of lockdown and operating like the other states. Australia would open up. Covid-19 would continue but would be quickly suppressed as it popped up its ugly head.

However, given the all-consuming seduction of total political power by every Labor Party operative and supporter in Victoria, there is no way that what I have outlined above will come to pass.

Instead, the economic and health disaster that is now Victoria will grind on. The self-employed, small business people in Victoria are the one’s copping it in the economic neck more than anyone else.

Witnessing the destruction of Victoria, unable to do anything, is like witnessing the destruction of Hong Kong, also unable to do anything. Two great and vibrant societies grinding into forced depression.

But in Victoria there are two longer term triggers of hope. First, a Federal election is to be held sometime late in 2021. Second, a Victorian state election is due on 26 November 2022. Twice the voters will express their ‘fix’ for the failed state. Until then the pain will grind on.

Leigh Coutie commented on 29-Sep-2020 10:20 AM
The management of the COVID situation in Victoria needs to be undertaken like a project - one person responsible with the authority to create sub projects for key control areas.

The key activities should be:
1) Re-establish hotel security using Victoria Police and ADF
2) Encourage testing for people who have been or are suspected to have been in contact with COVID cases, not just exhibiting symptoms.
3) Significantly improve the COVID tracing capabilities - both the systems and tracing personnel powers and the obligations of people being traced.
4) Change the control to cohorts rather than blanket restrictions. Currenlty over 65% of active cases in Melbourne are in Aged and health care with around 100 (maybe less now) active cases in the community - primarily in a few clusters.
5) Have more realistic restrictions - wear masks, continue sanitation, maintian 1.5 m distance should continue.
6) Open up samll businesses that comply with these contintions.
7) Recommence sport and exercise that can be undertaken safely such as surfing, golf, tennis, fishing etc.

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